Time-series forecasting · Autonomous by design
Market research that runs itself.
Tcast.ai is autonomous LLM market research and time-series forecasting. Humans set roles, budgets, and safety boundaries; the desk records evidence, forecasts, and outcomes for inspection.
01
Methodology
One baseline, one clock, clear uncertainty.
Every forecast keeps its original price and market-session deadline, including repeat forecasts. Each counts once; overlapping forecasts share market moves. Expand a ticker’s history to inspect individual results.
- Prediction baseline
- The asset price and SPY price recorded when the original approved forecast was made. A legacy backfill is labeled rather than presented as an exact live observation.
- Active forecast
- Current price versus prediction price while the market-session horizon remains open. Binance midpoint is primary when available; otherwise a completed Unusual Whales minute. There is no fallback beyond those two.
- Returns and benchmark
- Gross LONG or SHORT call returns are scored separately from the equal-weight SPY basket over matching windows. Uncertainty stays explicit; missing SPY data never changes an individual call.
- Simulated program return
- The same record replayed at the configured $10,000 clip per forecast, equal weight, compounded and marked on recorded closes, with costs charged on both legs: a return since inception and its APR. A second curve funds one stake once and reuses capital as positions close; it lags the book whenever the book is not fully deployed. Hypothetical — the desk holds no positions and this is not an account P&L.
- Sealed view
- Opening price versus the official close at the horizon, or the price that closed or reversed it. Once sealed, the result never changes; later decisions are annotations.
Forecasts
02 / Forecast
Recorded work and live activity
Activity
Decisions, ideas, AI research, recorded work, and live updates in one place.
03 / Inspect
Recorded choices
Decisions
Recent approve-or-decline choices and later reviews of open decisions.
From idea to decision
Ideas in progress
Follow opportunities, supporting and challenging evidence, and each candidate’s path to final review.
Human direction
Human theses
Operator-authored market claims are public immediately, researched first, and independently reviewed under the same decision and safety rules as autonomous ideas.
Opportunity search
What the desk is finding
Coverage shows how broadly the desk searched, including areas that produced no candidate.
Current opportunities
New candidates found by the desk, before any final decision.
Research record
Evidence for and against
Each candidate keeps supporting evidence and evidence that could disprove it side by side.
Decision path
Progress toward review
Research and review stages for every candidate still being considered.
AI work and results
Recorded work
Open privacy-safe work records. Admins can also read original conversations, which may contain private portfolio details.
AI work by role
As it happens
Live updates
Newest updates appear first. Pause stops on-screen updates only; the research service keeps working.
Private governance
Admin
Set the roles, resources, models, and safety boundaries for autonomous work.
04 / Govern
Admin login required
Results are public. Governance is private.
Sign in with the local admin password to change the desk’s operating boundaries or see private system details.
Governance and safety
Set the desk’s boundaries
Set roles, rules, models, resource budgets, and safety limits for future autonomous work. The desk is research-only and has no order path.
Autonomous research
Resource governance
Set live capacity, hard resource ceilings, research access, and specialist assignments without approving individual forecasts.
Concurrency limits drain safely when lowered. Hard autonomy ceilings cannot be extended by a running investigation. They bound research work alone — the desk has no order path.
System controls
Role state and safety
Live manager pool
What each manager is doing
Every manager in the pool, the work item it holds, how far that item has moved through the pipeline, and the specialist seats it is running right now. Turn and seat counters are cumulative over the work item, not the current cycle.
Operator-priority research
Submit a human thesis
Human theses receive the next eligible research slot, then one independent investment review. They never bypass concurrency limits or the desk's rules.
Immutable intake history
Submitted theses
Withdrawal cancels eligible future work; it never erases the public record.
Detailed system checks
System health
Check whether the main program, stored records, outside connections, and safety rules are working correctly.
Recorded failures
Failures
What failed, where, and the reason it gave, newest first. Nothing here is retried silently, so a row that keeps repeating is work that keeps failing.
Complete active settings
Settings
All settings used by this computer. Public pages show only a concise method summary.